UK Housing Market - signals?

Pippa Malgrem - http://www.drpmgroup.com/ recently wrote a book called 'Signals'.

A respected economist and social commentator, Pippa's view is essentially that in hindsight, the 'Signals' were all there before the last major financial correction, if you know where to look, and importantly, were prepared to think the unthinkable. There's a couple of old sayings that bear this out: 'if you see a bandwagon, it's too late' and 'lots of cranes on the London skyline is the precursor to a downturn'...there are lot's of cranes on the London skyline at the moment...

In 2005-7, the UK housing market was bowling along, UK Consumer Credit was increasing rapidly, Buy to Let was feted by every lender (including those that knew very little about it - see bandwagon quote above), and before long the market fell over, triggered by a wider collapse in confidence in the financial markets, albeit not mutually exclusive. The 'Signals' were all there - high LTV low margin lending, criteria stretched to the limit, lenders chasing market share to maintain their lending 'engines' rather than lend with prudence. The lessons then shaped the market through to 2014 where prudential lending ruled.

The last few years though have seen a shift in attitudes; new products (Help to Buy), the steam taken out of Buy to Let by Government intervention, the growth in HMO lending, and new lenders funded by challenger banks. The cranes are out in force in London (on average it takes 5 years from development inception until the crane goes up), and lenders are again starting to chase market share.

Only this week (11-15th March 2019) the mortgage industry headlines include:

'TSB increases income multiple cap; rejigs offerings'

'Zoopla to remove ‘no DSS’ ads from site'

'House price growth to fall to below zero in 2019: OBR'

'Hinckley & Rugby expands higher multiplier deal'

'Leeds makes cuts across BTL range'

'Virgin Money reviews policy to accept CCJs and defaults'

'Newcastle cuts rates on product transfer offers'

'Magellan closes doors to new business'

'Hinckley & Rugby launches two high-LTV products'

'Ipswich amends and adds to shared ownership range'

'FTBs still drawing on Bank of Mum and Dad: Aldermore'

'Mortgage lending drops in January: UK Finance'

In one week!!

There is quite clearly a growing trend of amending criteria to widen the aperture on lending opportunity, lenders starting to close their pipelines as they cannot compete on reducing margins (not sensibly anyway), and the market being supported by marginal customers (DSS, CCJs, Defaults etc), cranes on the skylines, not to speak of the growth in private housebuilding, and the steam leaking from the engine.

....Signals?